A Stalling Point?

Posted by admin | Uncategorized | Wednesday 17 June 2009 7:11 pm

Over the past couple of weeks, not much has occurred. Economic data has been about expected. Bond yields started soaring but have since retreated some. The S&P 500 can’t seem to break through 950 and is at 910.

Most believe that we are not in a deflationary spiral, but some believe we are just going to be flat from here on out. There are others that believe a wave of inflation may take over. There is also the risk of a double dip recession, which may just be similar to being flat.

I don’t think we will have robust economic growth, as the Obama administration expects. Because of this, I foresee huge budget deficits over the next few years, and I don’t think the market will look kindly to it. Thus, I think there is a risk for a double dip recession or perhaps inflation, since I think there’s a good chance the Fed will monetize things.

I don’t think it will take too long for this to happen…we’ll likely see some sparks fly by next year.

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